Offbeat Airplane and oil deals at risk in Trump pullout of Iran deal

18:31  06 may  2018
18:31  06 may  2018 Source:   msn.com

Trump has all but decided to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal: sources

  Trump has all but decided to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal: sources <p>U.S. President Donald Trump has all but decided to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear accord by May 12 but exactly how he will do so remains unclear, two White House officials and a source familiar with the administration's internal debate said on Wednesday.</p>There is a chance Trump might choose to keep the United States in the international pact under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, in part because of "alliance maintenance" with France and to save face for French President Emmanuel Macron, who met Trump last week and urged him to stay in, the source said.

“Basically everything we’ve seen maybe in the past months has been very much due to the Iran risk and, possibly, the Venezuela risk as well.” If Trump pulls out of the Iran nuclear deal and refrains from extending sanctions relief for the oil -producing Islamic Republic, then oil prices could rise

If Trump pulls out of the Iran nuclear deal it could sink billion in airline sales. The deal , which took years to negotiate and ended nearly four decades of tense relations between Iran and the West, gave global energy and aerospace companies access to the untapped market of oil -rich Iran and its

FILE - In this Jan. 12, 2017 file photo, the pilot of Iran Air's new Airbus plane waves a national flag after landing at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran, Iran. From brand-new airplanes to oilfields, billions of dollars of deals stand on the line for international corporations as President Donald Trump weighs whether to pull America out of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) © The Associated Press FILE - In this Jan. 12, 2017 file photo, the pilot of Iran Air's new Airbus plane waves a national flag after landing at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran, Iran. From brand-new airplanes to oilfields, billions of dollars of deals stand on the line for international corporations as President Donald Trump weighs whether to pull America out of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File) DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — From airplanes to oilfields, billions of dollars are on the line for international corporations as President Donald Trump weighs whether to pull America out of Iran's nuclear deal with world powers.

Iran's president: US ending deal will be 'historic regret'

  Iran's president: US ending deal will be 'historic regret' Iran's president is warning President Donald Trump that pulling America out of the nuclear deal with world powers would be a "historic regret.President Hassan Rouhani made the comments Sunday in the city of Sabzevar while on a tour of Iran's Razavi Khorasan province.

Earth/Nature. Australia’s ‘punk turtle’ risks being last of the Mohicans. BEIRUT (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is expected to pull the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement on May 12. Under the current deal , Iran ’s enrichment levels must remain around 3.6 percent.

Trump is likely to keep Iran deal in place — for now. Here's what could happen if he doesn't. President Donald Trump is expected to announce this week whether the U.S. will remain committed to the Iran nuclear pact. Oil markets at risk .

Regardless of where they are headquartered, virtually all multinational corporations do business or banking in the U.S., meaning any return to pre-deal sanctions could torpedo deals made after the 2015 agreement came into force.

That threat alone has been enough to scare risk-averse firms, like Boeing Co., into slow-walking deals agreed to months ago. A complete pullout by the U.S. would wreak further havoc and likely frighten off those considering making the plunge.

"I absolutely think those on the fence will not jump in," said Richard Nephew, a former sanctions expert at the U.S. State Department who worked on the nuclear deal and now is at New York's Columbia University. "The only ones who will, will be those who see tremendous monetary benefit and no U.S. risk."

Oil pops above $70 for first time since 2014

  Oil pops above $70 for first time since 2014 Rising oil prices just passed another milestone as traders prepare for the possibility that President Trump will abandon the Iran nuclear deal.Oil prices have been climbing partly because of expectations that President Donald Trump will abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which allowed Iran to export more crude.

The ousting of Rex Tillerson bodes badly for the Iran nuclear deal . President Trump has already signaled that he will not stay in the deal on May 12. Our view is that the impact to Iran 's current oil production and exports will be limited.

MOST READ. {{article.title}}. What could Iran do if Trump pulls out of nuclear deal ? The Houthis have fired missiles at Riyadh and Saudi oil facilities, saying they are retaliating against air raids on Yemen.

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal lifted crippling economic sanctions that had locked Iran out of international banking and the global oil trade. In return, Tehran limited its enrichment of uranium, reconfigured a heavy-water reactor so it couldn't produce plutonium and reduced its uranium stockpile and supply of centrifuges.

For Western businesses, the deal meant access to Iran's largely untapped market of 80 million people. Most prominently, airplane manufacturers rushed in to replace the country's dangerously dilapidated civilian fleet.

In December 2016, Airbus Group signed a deal with Iran's national carrier, IranAir, to sell it 100 airplanes for around $19 billion at list prices. Boeing later struck its own deal with IranAir for 80 aircraft with a list price of some $17 billion, promising that deliveries would begin in 2017 and run until 2025. Boeing separately struck another 30-airplane deal with Iran's Aseman Airlines for $3 billion at list prices.

Iran president warns of 'problems' as Trump decision looms

  Iran president warns of 'problems' as Trump decision looms Iran's president has warned the country could face "some problems" ahead of President Donald Trump's decision on whether to pull out of its nuclear deal with world powers. Without directly naming Trump, Rouhani's remarks on Tuesday at a petroleum conference in Tehran represented the first official Iranian comment on the U.S. president's overnight tweet that he'd make an announcement on the deal Tuesday. "It is possible that we will face some problems for two or three months, but we will pass through this," Rouhani said.Rouhani also stressed Iran wants to keep "working with the world and constructive engagement with the world.

European oil majors seeking to jointly develop Iran 's oil and natural gas fields, such as France's Total , might also retrench. Trump 's path forward. Assuming Trump does not announce a sudden withdrawal from the deal , there are two ways he could trigger a pullout .

While the public debate rages over President Trump ’s threat to pull the United States out of the Iran deal , actors both inside and outside the U.S The worst-case scenario is Iran drastically ramps up its uranium enrichment and regional aggression, raising tensions and increasing the risk of a crisis.

But Boeing has yet to deliver a single aircraft to Iran. The Chicago-based company's CEO recently stressed it understands the "risks and implications around the Iranian aircraft deal," which would be the biggest business agreement between an American company and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and U.S. Embassy takeover.

"We continue to follow the U.S. government's lead here and everything is being done per that process," Dennis Muilenburg said during a quarterly earnings conference call on April 25. "We have no Iranian deliveries that are scheduled or part of the skyline this year, so those have been deferred again in line with the U.S. government process."

Airbus, a European airline consortium based in Toulouse, France, likewise continues its sales at the discretion of the American government. At least 10 percent of its aircraft components are of American origin, meaning it requires permission from the U.S. Treasury for its sales to Iran. Airbus has already delivered two A330-200s and one A321 to Iran.

Airbus declined to comment when asked by The Associated Press about its possible plans ahead of Trump's decision.

Why Trump hates the Iran deal, explained

  Why Trump hates the Iran deal, explained A bite-size primer to one of the most important decisions of Donald Trump’s presidency.Recall that the Iran deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, likely stops Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon for about a decade.

If the nuclear deal falls through, Iran will have little incentive to stop its Shi’ite militia allies in Syria from carrying out attacks against Israel. Of the other signatories only China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil , is able to brush this off. Reporting by Babak Dehghanpisheh; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and Giles

Pulling out of the deal could risk exacerbating these conflicts or lifting the constraints on Iran ’s Last month, Trump said Iran "should write us a letter of thank you" for "the stupidest deal of all time." Iran has made deals to expand its oil fields, build cars, and buy dozens of aircraft from the EU's Airbus

European airplane manufacturer ATR struck a $536-million deal with IranAir for at least 20 aircraft last year. It's already has delivered eight of its twin-engine turboprops to Tehran after earlier winning permission from the U.S. Treasury.

"To date, we are on track to deliver the remaining ATR aircraft in due time, before the end of the year," ATR spokesman David Vargas told the AP.

The speed at which Western airplane manufacturers went into Iran is contrasted by a slow start by Western energy firms despite the country's vast oil and gas wealth. The exception is French oil giant Total SA, which in July signed a $5 billion, 20-year agreement with Iran and a Chinese oil company to develop the country's massive South Pars offshore natural gas field. The natural gas pumped by the deal will go toward Iran's domestic market.

The deal marked a return to Iran for Total, which pulled out of the country in 2008 as Western sanctions over its nuclear program began to ramp up. Total did not respond to requests for comment, though its CEO Patrick Pouyanne reportedly told Trump in February to stick with the deal.

"If the framework, the rules of the game, change, of course we will have to re-evaluate," Pouyanne told the Financial Times.

French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen reached a deal in 2016 to open a plant producing 200,000 vehicles annually in Iran. Peugeot, once a major player in Iran's car market before sanctions, did not respond to a request for comment.

Oil wavers ahead Trump's Iran nuclear deal decision

  Oil wavers ahead Trump's Iran nuclear deal decision <p>Oil prices turned volatile Tuesday after a report that President Donald Trump will not pull the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, but it was not immediately clear whether the report was accurate.</p>Bloomberg News reported that Trump will announce new sanctions on Iran but would not leave the deal, citing CNN. However, that headline was not accurate. CNN actually reported that Trump would restore sanctions that have been suspended, marking the first step toward exiting the accord.

Conflict between the US and Iran is one of the top geopolitical risks to the oil market this year. The problem for the Trump administration is that if the president trashes the nuclear deal , Iran will likely restart its nuclear program, as it has already stated. “

Oil Spikes As Trump Threatens Withdrawal From Iran Nuclear Deal . × According to a report by Reuters, President Donald Trump is expected to pull the US out of the Iran nuclear agreement, there are a number of ways that

Meanwhile, fellow French automobile manufacturer Groupe Renault signed a $778-million deal to build 150,000 cars a year at a factory outside of Tehran.

"The Renault Group is closely monitoring the evolution of the diplomatic situation," the company said in a statement to the AP, without elaborating.

Volkswagen also began exporting cars to Iran.

"Currently we are tracking and examining the development of the political and economic environment in the region very closely," the German carmaker said in a statement. "In principle, Volkswagen adheres to all applicable national and international laws and export regulations."

Nuclear deal co-signers Britain, France and Germany, which have urged Trump to preserve the deal, may seek exemptions to protect their companies if the U.S. snaps back sanctions, said Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow studying Iran at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

"This should include a series of exemptions and carve-outs for European companies already involved in strategic areas of trade and investment with Iran, with the priority being to limit the immediate shock to Iranian oil exports," she wrote Wednesday.

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Follow Jon Gambrell on Twitter at www.twitter.com/jongambrellap . His work can be found at http://apne.ws/2galNpz .

Mattis vows to work with allies after Iran pullout .
<p>The United States will keep working with allies to prevent a nuclear Iran, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said.</p>"We will continue to work alongside our allies and partners to ensure that Iran can never acquire a nuclear weapon, and will work with others to address the range of Iran's malign influence," Mattis told a Senate panel. "This administration remains committed to putting the safety, interests and well-being of our citizens first.

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