Opinion This is not Trump's economy

18:25  10 august  2017
18:25  10 august  2017 Source:   The Week

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  Trump, GOP senators to introduce bill to slash legal immigration levels The bill is expected to face fierce resistance from congressional Democrats and immigrant rights groups.Sens. Tom Cotton (Ark.) and David Perdue (Ga.) have been working with the Trump administration to refine a bill they first introduced in February that aims to cut immigration by half from the current level of more than 1 million green cards per year granting foreigners permanent legal residence in the United States. The revised legislation also is expected to put stricter limits on temporary work visas for lower skilled immigrants.

Fulfillment of Trump ' s campaign promises would aggravate climate change. This is also not the right time to add to the U.S. oil supply. "Donald Trump ' s Economic Plans Would Destroy the Economy ," The Atlantic, May 8, 2016.)

Substantial majorities (upward of 60%) believe the Trump administration will improve the economy and create jobs. A slim majority (52%) say This latest iteration of “trickle down” economics will not help him achieve that goal. Unfortunately, the other parts of Trump ’ s economic plan are equally dismal.

President Trump visits a U.S. factory.© REUTERS/Mike Segar President Trump visits a U.S. factory. Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

How much credit should President Trump get for a U.S. economy that's generating lots of jobs and for a stock market that keeps setting record highs?

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Very little.

Trump, of course, thinks MAGAnomics is doing the trick, as do his most ardent supporters. After the July jobs numbers came out last week, Fox News and other members of Team Trump were touting the more than 1 million private-sector jobs created since Inauguration Day. Over on Trump TV, former CNN pundit Kayleigh McEnany was even crediting the president with personally creating them. That Obama created the same number of jobs during his final six months was considered less newsworthy, apparently.

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  Trump touts new factories after West Virginia rally Early Friday on Twitter, President Trump called the new plants "a great investment in American manufacturing." Trump's tweets applauding the ventures came as Mazda and Toyota are set to announce a facility — operational by 2021 — with the capacity to produce 300,000 vehicles annually.

The reasons for this are simple, economists say. The economy is close to reaching “full employment," adding another 292,000 jobs in December. Trump is not without his defenders, even in the GOP establishment that he has spurned.

You can see the two Trump support lines are higher among those at the highest end of the income scale (4) than the lowest (1). This is not , however The one difference is on ‘the economy in general,’ which Trump supporters worry about more than Brexiteers. This could be because in the graph

Presidents are always given too much credit or blame for economic performance on their watch. So many factors are outside their control. But beyond that, the idea that this is already "Trump's economy" is ridiculous. None of Trump's big agenda items — at least the ones corporate America and Wall Street really care about — have become law. No ObamaCare repeal. No massive tax cuts. No trillion-dollar infrastructure. Nothing.

To the extent that any president "owns" an economy's performance, we're still in the Obama era. Indeed, we really ought to credit the economic performance during the first year of any president's term to his predecessor — after all, it's mostly that other guy's budgets and policies directly influencing the economy. So for instance, George W. Bush's economy wasn't from 2001 through the end of 2008 — it was 2002 through the end of 2009. And so on.

Trump touts ‘historic’ bill to curb legal immigration

  Trump touts ‘historic’ bill to curb legal immigration President Trump on Friday touted newly unveiled GOP legislation aimed at curbing legal immigration as "historic," in an effort to promote the controversial measure."Just this week, we announced a historic immigration bill to create a merit-based Green Card system that ends the abuse of our welfare system, stops chain migration, and protects our workers and our economy," the president said in his weekly address. Trump unveiled the legislation - which fulfills a key campaign promise - during an event at the White House this week with GOP Sens. Tom Cotton (Ark.) and David Perdue (Ga.).Proponents said the bill would move the U.S.

Trump noted that infrastructure improvements would stimulate economic growth while acknowledging "on the federal level, this is going to be an expensive investment, no Trump also stated: "Right now, 92 million Americans are on the sidelines, outside the workforce, and not part of our economy .

This approach would weaken the U. S . economy as nations quickly retaliate, overall trade shrinks and jobs are lost. History should not be ignored. There is good reason few economists have endorsed Trump ’ s economic plan. It ignores history, uses failed policy, promises what is impossible and, if

This change would make a big difference. During George W. Bush's two terms, GDP growth averaged 2.1 percent as 1.4 million new jobs were added. Pretty unimpressive. But recalculated — Bush gets Obama's first year and loses his first year to Bill Clinton — and the 43rd president's record looks even worse: just 1.5 percent growth and a loss of 1.1 million jobs.

This isn't to say Trump should get zero credit for anything good that's happened this year. It's certainly reasonable that the stock market's 10 percent rise since Trump took the oath of office at least partially reflects investor expectations about his growth plan. But how much? It's always tough to parse these things. Believe it or not, there's more going on in the world than Trump, such as a synchronized upswing in the global economy for the first time since the Great Recession.

There are more complications that don't easily fit the GOP's pro-Trump narrative: First, even when new policies or the expectations of policy changes matter, too much weight shouldn't be given to short-term performance. The very large Reagan tax cuts in the early 1980s were supposed to improve U.S. productivity growth. But there was no upturn until the mid-1990s. This time around, tax cuts might boost growth, but probably not too much if they are temporary and greatly worsen the deficit.

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Donald Trump has had a lot of success in business, but how will he be for the economy as president? Editor's note: This story was originally published in October 2015. Those who fear Trump ' s plans should find common cause with those who love them: "I'm not sure how much of what

A new CNN poll shows Clinton drawing even on the question of who would be better equipped to manage the economy . And Trump critics say that relying on misleading or entirely invented statistics and questioning the validity of existing numbers is not the best way to turn this trend around.

Second, don't forget the Federal Reserve. The Obama recovery is as much if not more the Bernanke-Yellen recovery, just as easing by the Volcker Fed helped ignite the Reagan boom. With the Yellen Fed thinking the economy is near or at full employment, the central bank could offset further fiscal stimulus with more rapid and continued tightening of monetary policy. Or monetary policy could stay loose and continue as a tailwind to growth.

Third, Washington isn't the whole ballgame. While one might partially credit the 1990s boom to Reaganomics' tax and regulatory changes, one should also credit Moore's Law, the PC revolution, and the emergence of the internet. Whatever Trump does might pale compared to what's happening in Silicon Valley. As I wrote last week, the IT revolution is far from over and might still have a huge impact on productivity and growth.

This isn't the Trump economy. If anything, it's the Obama economy — or the AmazonAppleFacebookGoogle economy.

Poll: Trump's approval rating hits lowest number yet .
President Trump's approval rating is at an all-time low in a new poll amid losses in support from key demographics. Trending Now: The 10 Best Balance Transfer Cards See The Cards Sponsored by NextAdvisor Trump's approval rating is at 32 percent in the latest IBD/TIPP poll, down 5 points from July. Fifty-nine percent of respondents say they disapprove of the job he's doing.The poll's director, Raghavan Mayur, said that the mounting Russia investigation, coupled with chaos in the White House and the failure to repeal ObamaCare, are all contributing factors to Trump's mounting unpopularity.

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