Politics 5 very real scenarios that could lead to a government shutdown

20:52  28 november  2017
20:52  28 november  2017 Source:   msn.com

Democrats skip Trump meeting, raising risk of government shutdown

  Democrats skip Trump meeting, raising risk of government shutdown <p>Democratic leaders in Congress skipped a meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday that was to have focused on the budget, raising the risk of a government shutdown next month with both sides far apart on the terms of an agreement.</p>Democratic leaders in Congress skipped a meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday that was to have focused on the budget, raising the risk of a government shutdown next month with both sides far apart on the terms of an agreement.

Here are the five likeliest scenarios that could still shut down the government , ranked. The House Freedom Caucus is often at the center of government shutdown threats. (Congress can be very incremental that way.)

On the flip side, there are lots of paths to get to a shutdown scenario . 30 deadline, and experts say there's a up to a 70 percent chance that the government could shut down for at least a few days come Oct. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), who, not coincidentally is running for president, is leading the way.

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Sometime in the next month, Congress could come to the brink of shutting down the government.

Congress has to pass some sort of spending bill by Dec. 8 to keep the lights on, but they may just kick the can down the road until Christmas.

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“I believe the odds are better than 50 percent,” said Steve Bell, a former GOP budget aide now with the Bipartisan Policy Institute.

There are just too many things that could go wrong: a contentious tax debate; intractable policy fights over immigration, health care and spending; and an unpredictable president who, on Tuesday morning, signaled he's not willing to compromise with Democrats. Democratic leaders returned fire by canceling their negotiating visit to the White House at the last minute.

Democrats skip Trump meeting, raising risk of government shutdown

  Democrats skip Trump meeting, raising risk of government shutdown <p>Democratic leaders in Congress skipped a meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday that was to have focused on the budget, raising the risk of a government shutdown next month with both sides far apart on the terms of an agreement.</p>Democratic leaders in Congress skipped a meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday that was to have focused on the budget, raising the risk of a government shutdown next month with both sides far apart on the terms of an agreement.

[ 5 very real scenarios that could lead to a government shutdown ]. But what happens next? Will they vote for a spending bill they don't like? Or will they vote against it and shut down the government ?

The Donald Trump of last Tuesday -- all deal-maker and can 't we all get along -- might have made lots of Democrats very nervous about letting the government shut down amid an immigration That division made the debate over who would be blamed a toss-up in the days leading into the shutdowns .

There's so much going on that could trip up Congress, so we ranked the five likeliest scenarios that could shut down the government.

5. Republicans don't pass a tax bill by Christmas

Republicans would like to pass a major tax rewrite before they focus on a spending bill. The Senate plans to vote this week on a tax bill, but even if that passes, the GOP is only halfway done: The House and Senate would still need to align their respective versions of very different bills, then vote again on a compromise.

Trump tells confidants that a government shutdown might be good for him

  Trump tells confidants that a government shutdown might be good for him The president’s waffling on the issue is hampering talks over a new long-term spending plan.Over the past 10 days, the president has also told advisers that it is important that he is seen as tough on immigration and getting money for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, according to two people who have spoken with him. He has asked friends about how a shutdown would affect him politically and has told several people he would put the blame on the Democrats.

The threat of a government shutdown in December is getting real . That’s the worst-case scenario — a president desperate for a legislative win using the threat of a government shutdown to pressure Congress on tax cuts.

Before now, he’s treated government shutdowns as not a big deal, even a good thing. Here’s a breakdown of the scenarios we could see playing out this fall — some leading to a shutdown , others keeping the government open past the Sept.

Republicans are trying to do all this without Democratic votes, and they have little room for error. In the Senate, they can afford to lose two votes. More than half a dozen GOP senators have expressed concerns with it.

When (or if) the tax bill passes, it will determine the rest of Congress's schedule, said Stan Collender, a nonpartisan budget expert and columnist for Forbes.

“If it passes by end of December the chance of a shutdown is zero,” he told The Fix in an email. Republicans won't want to take away from their big accomplishment by shutting down the government on their watch. “If it doesn’t, the chance is over 75 percent.”

Why? Because, President Trump is increasingly anxious for a legislative win, and Trump could hold up the spending bill as a chance to force Republicans to do something big by his first year. “This will be a signature political moment for Trump if he gets to shut down the government because he didn't get a tax bill by his deadline,” Collender predicted.

Conservatives rebel against House GOP plan to avert shutdown

  Conservatives rebel against House GOP plan to avert shutdown Hard-right conservatives are rebelling against a plan by House GOP leaders for a two-week reprieve from a possible government shutdown next week.&nbsp;Speaker Paul Ryan and other GOP leaders want to set a new government shutdown deadline just prior to Christmas to give time for talks with Democrats on the budget, hurricane relief and other unfinished business. Right now, Washington faces a Dec. 8 deadline.

Be very , very afraid. Not a chance. There was never going to be a shutdown . " A government shutdown , the possibility is not only real but could be just days away," said Fox's Sean Hannity. "The government is facing a looming deadline that could lead to the first shutdown in 15 years

[ 5 scenarios that could prevent a lengthy government shutdown ]. Ted Cruz (Texas) in the Senate who are really leading the charge. Already, Mulvaney has 31 lawmakers on his side; enough to block a budget that doesn't defund Planned Parenthood.

4. Republicans try to undo major parts of Obamacare

Actually, this is already happening. The Senate tax bill would repeal the crux of Obamacare, the individual mandate that says most people must have health insurance or pay a fine.

There's not much Democrats can do about it since Republicans are trying to pass the tax bill without their support.

But angry Democrats could exact punishment on the spending bill, where Republicans likely need their votes.

Trump inflamed this very delicate situation when he urged Republicans to repeal all of Obamacare after they pass a tax bill. That's not likely to win over any skeptical Democrats.

3. Democrats demand protection for dreamers

Part of why Congress's to-do list this month is so long is because Trump has ended a number of Obama-era policies and kicked their future over to Congress. He shut down the Iran nuclear deal, canceled federal payments that keep Obamacare viable for lower-income Americans and ended deportation protections for young undocumented immigrants.

House GOP unveils plan to avert government shutdown

  House GOP unveils plan to avert government shutdown House GOP leaders unveiled a plan Saturday to avert a government shutdown next weekend and keep the government open through Dec. 22. The measure would buy time for bipartisan talks on a bigger budget agreement that would give the Pentagon and government agencies significant relief from a pending budget freeze.A temporary spending bill enacted in September expires at midnight on Friday.The move comes despite opposition from some GOP conservatives who think they're being set up for a pre-Christmas deal they won't like.

Now, those very same conservatives have lost their main leverage to get what they want: Boehner is offering to step down himself. But the real showdown could come in two months, when an emboldened group of House The 5 scenarios that could prevent a lengthy government shutdown .

It’s a likely scenario since there are just a few more working days for lawmakers to come to an agreement and there’s no sign of that in sight. The House Has Voted to Defund Planned Parenthood, Could Lead to a Government Shutdown .

That last one seems to be the sword Democrats are willing to fall on this December.

The Post's Mike DeBonis and Ed O'Keefe report that dozens of liberal lawmakers will refuse to vote for a spending bill if it doesn't provide legal protection to dreamers.

2. Republicans and Democrats can't compromise on spending levels

Funding the government is difficult. Funding the government on a budget is really difficult. And Congress has been on a strict budget since 2011, when they created self-imposed spending caps as part of another budget deal.

This year, Trump and Republicans want to bust through those caps to beef up military spending by more than $600 billion. But Democrats want something else in exchange for their votes: boosting spending for the military and domestic priorities equally.

This has been one of Democrats' red lines for as long as spending caps have existed, so Republicans and Trump are likely going to have to compromise here or risk losing Democratic votes.

1. Trump himself 

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Not being able to predict Trump is Congress's biggest hurdle.

No one knows what he wants or who he'll side with, even after he makes his decision. In September, he sided with Democrats over a budget and debt ceiling showdown and agreed to discuss protecting dreamers. Then he flipped his position on immigration several times in one day.

There's always a chance he'll demand money for a border wall, which is a non-starter for Senate Democrats and a lot of Republicans.

Exclusive: Trump wants 20 percent corporate tax rate, shutdown not expected - White House .
Exclusive: Trump wants 20 percent corporate tax rate, shutdown not expected - White HouseIn an interview with Reuters, Short said he hoped Trump's meeting with Republican and Democratic congressional leaders, scheduled for Thursday, would produce a two-year budget deal that would outline spending for fiscal years 2018 and 2019.

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