Politics DACA negotiations: Key questions to avoiding a shutdown

18:07  11 january  2018
18:07  11 january  2018 Source:   CNN

Trump tweets about DACA amid 's**thole' controversy

  Trump tweets about DACA amid 's**thole' controversy President Donald Trump took to Twitter Saturday morning to blame Democrats for stalled immigration negotiations."I don't believe the Democrats really want to see a deal on DACA. They are all talk and no action," Trump tweeted. "This is the time but, day by day, they are blowing the one great opportunity they have.

Again, work on DACA is still underway on several fronts (which is part of the problem), but that calculation by GOP leadership raises two questions that must be answered affirmatively -- or a government shutdown is really on the table But will a shutdown happen?

Again, work on DACA is still underway on several fronts (which is part of the problem), but that calculation by GOP leadership raises two questions that must be answered affirmatively -- or a government shutdown is really on the table But will a shutdown happen?

US President Donald Trump, meets with Congressional leadership including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (C), Republican of Kentucky, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (R), in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, December 7, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images) © SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images US President Donald Trump, meets with Congressional leadership including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (C), Republican of Kentucky, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (R), in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, December 7, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / SAUL LOEB (Photo credit should read SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images)

For all the ongoing negotiations, groups, and proposals related to the expiring Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, senior Republicans in both chambers have shifted gears fully to the idea that the government will need to be funded on January 19 without a DACA solution.

Washington Careens Toward Trump's 'Good Shutdown'

  Washington Careens Toward Trump's 'Good Shutdown' <p>Friday marks the one-year anniversary of President Donald Trump taking the oath of office, and unless lawmakers can eke out a deal in the coming days, it could also mark the first government shutdown under his watch, and under unified one-party control in Washington.</p>Trump declared back in May that the country “needs a good shutdown” to “fix mess,” and amid uncertainty that lawmakers and the White House can agree on a path forward on government funding, immigration, or health care, a shutdown is becoming a tangible possibility.

Again, work on DACA is still underway on several fronts (which is part of the problem), but that calculation by GOP leadership raises two questions that must be answered affirmatively -- or a government shutdown is really on the table But will a shutdown happen?

Again, work on DACA is still underway on several fronts (which is part of the problem), but that calculation by GOP leadership raises two questions that must be answered affirmatively -- or a government shutdown is really on the table But will a shutdown happen?

Even the most optimistic say the chance of any agreement on immigration proposals coming together that Republican leaders are willing to move forward on isn't in the cards.

The two key questions

Again, work on DACA is still underway on several fronts (which is part of the problem), but that calculation by GOP leadership raises two questions that must be answered affirmatively -- or a government shutdown is really on the table:

1. Can House Republicans secure 218 votes for a short-term spending bill on their own -- as they did in December -- even though the promises made to defense hawks haven't been fulfilled?

2. Can Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pick off a handful of Democrats for a short-term spending bill in the Senate despite how furious the base is over DACA and how much the caucus wants to stay unified?

Trump to meet Republican senators on immigration

  Trump to meet Republican senators on immigration Key Republican senators will meet with President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday as negotiations continue to reach a compromise on DACATrump is set to host the more conservative members of his party negotiating with Democrats in the Senate over DACA, an Obama administration policy that protected young undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children from deportation.

DACA negotiations full steam ahead despite ruling, sources say. Again, work on DACA is still underway on several fronts (which is part of the problem), but that calculation by GOP leadership raises two questions that must be answered affirmatively -- or a government shutdown is really on the table

Lawmakers admit they need another stopgap budget bill to avoid a shutdown . Mark Amodei of Nevada told CNN when asked about DACA negotiations . "Shock." But while President Donald Trump focuses on a "wall" as a key component of any deal on DACA , even conservative lawmakers

If the answer is "no" to one or both of the above, there's a shutdown problem.

But will a shutdown happen?

Nobody in either party's leadership wants it. That's about as far as you can go in stating what's going to happen at this point.

What Senate Republicans think: There's no way Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer can keep the entire caucus together -- especially those in tough 2018 races in Trump-friendly states -- to oppose a short-term spending bill on DACA grounds. And if it looks like he can, keep in mind that things like the re-authorization of the Children's Health Insurance Program, and a more than-$80 billion disaster relief package, can also be brought up by McConnell to make that vote especially painful.

What Senate Democrats think: To be perfectly clear, the caucus isn't unified on this, but for the large majority of the caucus, this isn't a bluff. This issue is real, the moment is now, the mechanism is the spending bill and the reasons -- the approximately 700,000 DACA recipients, thousands of whom had already lost their protection due to the administration's decision -- are at the core of what they believe and campaign on.

Tensions Rising as Shutdown Looms

  Tensions Rising as Shutdown Looms It’s understandable if you’re experiencing a bit of shutdown fatigue, given the many dire warnings about impending closures of the federal government coming out of Washington over the last few months.&nbsp;It’s understandable if you’re experiencing a bit of shutdown fatigue, given the many dire warnings about impending closures of the federal government coming out of Washington over the last few months. But with Congress repeatedly pushing the legislative envelope, passing one short-term deal after another, the warnings have been warranted, even if a closure has failed to materialize thus far.

The more issues get caught up in the negotiations , the greater the chance of a shutdown . 3. Will Democrats really demand a DACA agreement to vote for a spending bill? And, if so, when will they make that demand?

Lawmakers admit they need another stopgap budget bill to avoid a shutdown . Mark Amodei of Nevada told CNN when asked about DACA negotiations . "Shock." But while President Donald Trump focuses on a "wall" as a key component of any deal on DACA , even conservative lawmakers

Just saying: Yes, Republicans have serious problems finding a way forward on this in their conferences (especially in the House.) But it's not like Democrats are in lock step on supporting whatever bipartisan agreement is released. Many, especially in the House, are extremely uncomfortable with the direction the talks have headed.

Can a DACA agreement still come together?

Yes. Absolutely. The issue is timing. And policy.

Two things to note here: First, there is genuine desire to deal with this issue -- it's very personal for a lot of members and senators -- and GOP leaders know they need to get it off their plate as soon as possible or face a 2018 poisoned by the issue.

But the best chance for a bipartisan deal to date -- the Senate working group that has been at it for months -- has headed in a direction a majority of the Republicans in the conference are unwilling to go, many senators and aides tell me.

And yet: That bipartisan working group -- Sens. Dick Durbin, Jeff Flake, Lindsey Graham, Michael Bennet, Cory Gardner and Bob Menendez -- has continued to hammer away at this and should have some kind of product in the coming days, sources say. We'll see if that changes the direction of things, which at this point, is in an absurdly muddled place.

The key player: It's the President. Period. He can and likely will make or break whatever proposals (that are deemed serious) come out. And the work behind the scenes between competing interests and close allies (think Sen. Tom Cotton on one side and Graham on the other) is a fascinating dynamic to keep an eye on at this point.

Why Immigration Hawks Shouldn’t Be Worried (Yet) About Trump Surrendering On DACA .
There is no rational reason he would give away DACA for nothingLoad Error

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