Politics Analysis | Congress to Trump, basically: Russia is not fake news

01:55  05 october  2017
01:55  05 october  2017 Source:   msn.com

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In a scientific study, post hoc analysis (from Latin post hoc, "after this") consists of analyses that were not specified before seeing the data. This typically creates a multiple testing problem because each potential analysis is effectively a statistical test.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Vice Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-Va.).© J. Scott Applewhite/AP Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Vice Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-Va.).

As recently as two weeks ago, the president called the allegations that Russia helped him win the 2016 election a hoax.

“One of the great hoaxes,” he said at a campaign rally in Alabama.

Congress sees it differently. The Senate's investigation into Russian meddling and whether Trump's 2016 campaign helped isn't complete, but lawmakers announced Wednesday that they've reached some conclusions, and those conclusions contradict how Trump has approached Russia.

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Analysis Interpretation of the news based on evidence, including data, as well as anticipating how events might unfold based on past events. This post has been updated with Trump 's latest tweet about the Russia investigation.

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Here are four things a Republican senator and a Democratic senator say they know about Russia after eight months of investigating, hundreds of hours of interviews with more than 100 people and nearly 100,000 pages of documents reviewed.

1. “There is consensus among members and staff that we trust the conclusions” of the intelligence community's assessment. — Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee

Translation: In January, the U.S. intelligence community said Russia carried out a comprehensive cyber campaign to sabotage the presidential election and help Trump win. It was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. We looked into it and there's no reason to doubt that conclusion, Burr is saying, even though Trump has questioned it several times.

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Sentiment analysis : Trump ’s tweets are much more negative than his campaign’s. Since we’ve observed a difference in sentiment between the Android and iPhone tweets, let’s try quantifying it.

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2. “The Russian intelligence service is determined, clever, and I recommend that every campaign and every election official take this very seriously.” — Burr

Translation: Burr was urging upcoming campaigns and state election officials to be on high alert that Russia will try to mess with future elections. But his advice could also apply to Trump, who has been accused of brushing off the notion of Russia meddling.

3. “We have more work to do as it relates to Russia collusion, but we're developing a clearer picture of what happened.” — Burr

Translation: At the very least, accusations that the Trump campaign worked with Russia are not a hoax. It's worth significant time and resources for the Senate Intelligence Committee to continue investigating. Same goes for an independent investigation led by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III.

Facebook Giving Congress Russia-linked Ads

  Facebook Giving Congress Russia-linked Ads The ads are linked to 470 fake accounts that were set up by the Kremlin-linked Internet Research Agency. The ads are being given to the House and Senate intelligence committees and the Senate Judiciary Committee. In a blog post early last month Facebook revealed its investigation tracked at least $100,000 spent on ads from the accounts that spread divisive messages about LGBT rights, race, immigration and gun control targeted at American voters.Facebook hasn’t released the names of the accounts, but some contained the words “refugee” and “patriot.

A similar analysis of candidate Hillary Clinton’s proposed economic policies will be forthcoming. Three scenarios are considered. First, we take Mr. Trump ’s proposals at face value as outlined on his campaign’s web site and in his speeches and interviews.

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4. “You can't walk away from this and believe that Russia is not active in trying to create chaos in our election process.” — Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.)

Translation: The senators haven't concluded much beyond ruling that Russia meddled in the election and could be trying to do it again. They're still investigating Trump campaign officials' meetings with Russians, former FBI director James B. Comey's allegations that Trump tried to get him to back off Russia and the Republican campaign platform's switch to a Russia-friendly position.

But the senators were ready to definitively say that Russia did three things in the U.S. election.

Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit in July.© Evan Vucci/AP Trump meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit in July.

1. They hacked into emails of the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton campaign director John Podesta to try to damage Clinton politically.

2. They “actively tried” to get into 21 states' election systems, either to mess with the voter registration or undermine citizens' confidence that their votes were accurately counted.

  Analysis | Congress to Trump, basically: Russia is not fake news © Callum Borchers/The Washington Post

3. They exploited Facebook, Twitter and other social media by buying ads and creating fake accounts with the aim to “sow chaos or drive division in our country.”

“I fear sometimes if you add up all this, there was a decent rate of return,” Warner said.

One thing Russia did NOT do: The senators said they can “certifiably say” that Russia did not change any votes that were cast. States' voter registration systems and the systems that count votes are two different things.

Facebook Security Chief Warns of Dangers to Fake News Solutions .
Facebook Inc.’s chief security officer warned that the fake news problem is more complicated and dangerous to solve than the public thinks. Alex Stamos, who’s handling the company’s investigation into Russia’s use of the social media platform ahead of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, cautioned about hoping for technical solutions that he says could have unintended consequences of ideological bias. It’s very difficult to spot fake news and propaganda using just computer programs, Stamos said in a series of Twitter posts on Saturday.

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