Politics What Trump's move on Iran means for the US and the world

10:46  13 october  2017
10:46  13 october  2017 Source:   CNN

A worried Iran waits to see Trump's next move

  A worried Iran waits to see Trump's next move <p>Everyone in Iran's capital, from government officials to business people, was waiting anxiously on Friday to hear what action President Trump would announce against the Islamic Republic, reports CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer.</p>TEHRAN -- Everyone in Iran's capital, from government officials to business people, was waiting anxiously on Friday to hear what action President Trump would announce against the Islamic Republic, reports CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer.

03:09: Boniadi explains the Iran nuclear deal’s impact on her humanitarian work and how Trump ’ s rhetoric affects Iranian hard-liners. We really are trying to get along with the world .” And I was 20 days [old] when my parents were forced to move , or escape the revolution, move to London.

Keywords: Iran Trump USA . While the world waits to see whether Donald Trump will blow up the Iran nuclear deal, actress and activist Nazanin Boniadi has a message for the U . S . president: Stop emboldening Iranian leaders.

President Donald Trump signs an executive order on health care in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Thursday, Oct. 12, 2017, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) © Evan Vucci/AP President Donald Trump signs an executive order on health care in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Thursday, Oct. 12, 2017, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump will not kill the Iran nuclear deal on Friday.

But when he declares that it has not been in US interests, he will consign the proudest legacy achievement of President Barack Obama's second term to a deeply uncertain future -- and could even set off a train of consequences that could eventually lead to its collapse.

Should that be the case, Trump, or one of his successors in the Oval Office, may one day face the fateful choice that the deal was supposed to circumvent -- whether to use military force to stop the Islamic Republic racing toward the bomb.

Trump to announce broad Iran strategy later this week -White House

  Trump to announce broad Iran strategy later this week -White House <p>President Donald Trump will make an announcement later this week on an "overall Iran strategy," including whether to decertify the international deal curbing Tehran's nuclear program, the White House said on Tuesday.</p>"He'll make that later this week," White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders told reporters when asked about the certification decision and the administration's broader strategy on Iran. "The president has reached a decision on an overall Iran strategy and wants to make sure that we have a broad policy to deal with ... all of the problems of Iran being a bad actor.

Donald Trump criticises US courts as ‘so political’. Nationalism is running rampant, and our movement in the world together has been foreclosed again by the combination of our national With the exception of Iran , all of the countries in Trump ’ s list are experiencing war or protracted conflict.

Roughly speaking, engagement versus isolation is the choice that awaits the Iranians and the world depending on which Such retrenchment would move Iran ’ s policies toward a more combative and As Iran ’ s election season draws to its conclusion, Trump is gearing up to visit the region.

The President has fumed against what he has called a "very bad deal" and an "embarrassment" to the country despite all available evidence that Iran is complying with terms which imposed limits on its nuclear program in return for a lifting of sanctions that had crippled its economy.

"I think it was one of the most incompetently drawn deals I've ever seen," Trump told Fox News' Sean Hannity on Wednesday.

Trump's move, previewed to CNN by government sources and foreign diplomats, will give Congress 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions lifted under the terms of the agreement.

While the administration is not expected to push Congress to go that far, since it would likely cause Iran to immediately walk away, proponents of the nuclear deal fear that Trump's decision will strike a severe blow at the deal's legitimacy.

Iran president: 10 Trumps can't roll back nuke deal benefits

  Iran president: 10 Trumps can't roll back nuke deal benefits Iran's president defended the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers on Saturday, saying not even 10 Donald Trumps can roll back its benefits to his country, state TV reported. Hassan Rouhani's comments came as President Donald Trump appears to be stepping back from his campaign pledge to tear up the deal, instead aiming to take other measures against Iran and its affiliates.State TV broadcast Rouhani while addressing students at Tehran University, marking the beginning of the educational year."We have achieved benefits that are irreversible. Nobody can roll them back, neither Trump, nor 10 other Trumps," he said.

Insights from the candidate' s top advisers, and critics. What a Trump presidency would mean for Israel. If the GOP nominee wins, his key advisers say, he'll move the US embassy to Jerusalem, won't tell Israel where it cannot build in the West Bank, and might not push a two- state solution

The Trump Administration’ s rhetoric and actions have alarmed the world . Apparently the plan was not moving forward fast enough to please Obama, or Trump . Surely you mean vassal states . The US has no allies and in the case of an idiot war against Iran the US empire will be on its own.

A significant stiffened US policy toward Iran designed to tackle what the White House says are Tehran's destabilizing activities and support for terrorism could return the enemies to the cycle of confrontation and proxy wars of most of the last four decades, that could in itself cause the deal to slowly begin to unravel.

"If the President chooses to not certify, that already will be a negative step -- for one thing it will start a process of isolating us from our allies," Ernest Moniz, Obama's former energy secretary who helped negotiate the agreement, said on CNN's "New Day."

"If we went all the way and reimposed sanctions while Iran is in compliance ... this would be a slippery slope towards a bad outcome, something very much not in our national security interest," Moniz said.

What are Trump's motivations?

The potentially grave consequences of Trump's decision, and the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency, US allies and even the US government have said that Iran is in compliance with the agreement, have focused attention on Trump's motivations.

Iran's supreme leader accuses Trump of ranting and lying

  Iran's supreme leader accuses Trump of ranting and lying The country's supreme leader attacks the U.S. president for threatening to abandon the nuclear deal."I don't want to waste time on answering the rants and whoppers of the brute U.S. president," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said.

October 5, 2017 Trump plans to declare that Iran nuclear deal is not in the national interest. October 5, 2017 Cory Gardner postpones Pueblo town hall A broader question is not how the plan would affect rich households as opposed to the poor, but what it would mean for the American economy overall.

Trump has called the Iranian deal, which puts limits on Iran ’ s nuclear program in exchange for Israeli officials, meanwhile, said they would move quickly to push Trump to take a hard line against Iran . “That means : We need to fight against ISIS so we need to cooperate with Russia or Assad or whomever.” Egypt’ s Sisi was among the very first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his win.

Critics say Trump is recklessly risking the deal, and thereby endangering US national security, simply to satisfy his fierce antipathy toward the agreement and to showcase a rare political win to his supporters.

Trump has twice previously been forced certify Iran's compliance, against his inclination and made clear he doesn't intend to do so again, even though Tehran is still honoring the pact.

The President is not alone in opposing certification of the deal. Some Republicans in Congress, including Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, and members of the conservative foreign policy establishment believe that his move on Friday will force America's European allies, China and Russia and eventually Iran back to the table to improve the deal.

The President has also complained that the 2015 deal does not allow UN inspectors access to military sites, an argument one foreign diplomat dismissed while wondering whether Trump understands what is in the pact.

"I'm not sure he's privy to all the details," the diplomat said.

Trump's supports however argue that the deal puts the Iranians on a North Korea-style glide path to a nuclear weapon when it expires in 2025 -- a claim that proponents of the deal dispute. Those who back Obama's approach also slam the idea that there is a "better deal" to be had, as Trump has often said, as a myth or that other partners will agree to renegotiate.

Germany worries Trump will quit Iran nuclear deal

  Germany worries Trump will quit Iran nuclear deal German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Sunday that he feared US President Donald Trump would quit the Iran nuclear deal next week. Trump is a stern critic of the 2015 accord, which he has called "the worst deal ever", and US officials say he intends to tell US Congress next week that Tehran is not honouring its side of the bargain."The United States is likely to quit the Iran agreement next week -- that is my great concern," Gabriel was quoted as saying by national news agency DPA.

We could speculate all day about why Trump chose this path; perhaps he feels it’ s part of a deeper plan to better the United States that we simply can’t see yet, for example, but it certainly all seems part and parcel of a world many of us do not wish to see become reality — a world where we don’t see.

If President Obama’s foreign policy was characterized by “don’t do stupid stuff” and a retracted U . S . presence in the world , then Donald J. Trump ’ s will most certainly be characterized by fear and confusion as the world grapples with what “America First” really means .

"I don't know there is any guarantee that ever happens, there are just so many stakeholders here," said Brian Fleming, an official in the Obama Justice Department who worked extensively on the Iran deal and is now at the Miller & Chevalier law firm.

Punting to Congress

The decertification by the President is only one aspect of the new Iran policy he will roll out on Friday.

Trump is also expected to unveil a toughened approach to respond to Iran's ballistic missile development, political maneuverings throughout the region and what the administration says is its support for terrorism, including for groups like Hezbollah and Houthi rebels in Yemen, officials have said.

By punting a decision on the ultimate destiny of the Iran deal to Congress, Trump can also try to personally avoid blame for the consequences that would follow if he formally killed the deal.

Once Trump has engineered the new policy direction, the deal's fate will be in limbo. Should Congress go ahead and decide to reimpose sanctions, it is all but certain that Iran would walk away. It could then likely reinstall centrifuges disengaged under deal and could race toward development of a nuclear device, a process that experts believe could take only a year or so.

Diplomats and sources who have spoken to CNN say they don't believe that even Republican hawks opposed to the deal want to destabilize it, and end up paying the political price for a potential march to war by the US.

Iran warns U.S. against designating Guards a terrorist group

  Iran warns U.S. against designating Guards a terrorist group Iran will consider the U.S. army equivalent to the Islamic State militant group if Washington designates its Revolutionary Guards Corps a terrorist group, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported the Guards' commander as saying on Sunday. The news agency reported Mohammad Ali Jafari as adding that the United States was mistaken if it thought it could pressure Iran into negotiating on regional issues.President Donald Trump will announce new U.S. responses to Iran's missile tests, support for "terrorism" and cyber operations as part of his new Iran strategy, the White House said on Friday.

The world expected President Trump . In Trump ’ s telling, the US — despite its status as the world ’s sole superpower There is no chance they’d abandon those deals and reimpose sanctions on Iran if Trump chose to withdraw from the agreement despite no evidence that Iran has violated its terms.

However , Trump is very committed to improvement of the US economy . If Iran is attacked , the Iranian shall surly retaliate , not only against the Israeli state , but , also , US forces in the Persian gulf , and by massive terror attacks all over the world .

Alternatively, lawmakers could decide to do nothing, effectively leaving the deal untouched.

In that case, Iran could decide that it is in its interest to remain in the agreement since it will still be reaping the economic benefits it gained via the lifting of sanctions.

Even so, it is uncertain whether this option would preserve the deal in the long term. Should European firms for instance reconsider investments in Iran under the shadow of potential future US sanctions, they could decide not to invest in Iran, and thereby lower the dividend that Tehran won by supporting the deal.

That could bolster hardline opponents of the deal inside Iran, as could the administration's desire to sanction individuals and entities in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls vast business interests in the country a state sponsor of terrorism.

"Longer term, this will be very humiliating and embarrassing for the Rouhani government," said Trita Parsi, author of the book "Losing an Enemy," Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy." "They may be committed to the deal and they may not want to start messing with us, but their political strength will weaken and lead to a scenario in which they may lose power."

Danger of war, Germany warns after Trump's move on Iran nuclear deal .
If the United States terminates the Iran nuclear deal or reimposes sanctions on Tehran it could result in Iran developing nuclear weapons and raise the danger of war close to Europe, Germany's foreign minister said on Saturday. U.S. President Donald Trump refused on Friday to formally certify that Tehran was complying with the 2015 accord even though international inspectors say it is. He warned he might ultimately terminate the agreement.German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel told Deutschlandfunk radio that Trump had sent a "difficult and dangerous signal" when the U.S.

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